War-Driven Demand Transforms India’s Defence Trade

India shipped $872 million worth of ammunition and related products to European countries in the four years after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, as demand for military supplies surged. The figure represents a dramatic increase from $49.2 million during the preceding four-year period, highlighting India’s growing role in Europe’s defence supply chain.

According to Trade Data Monitor figures sourced from India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry and cited by Bloomberg News, the surge reflects Europe’s urgent need to replenish ammunition stockpiles depleted by the prolonged conflict.

Eastern Europe Emerges as the Biggest Market

Nearly three-quarters of India’s shipments went to a 13-country group across Central and Eastern Europe, including Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic and the Baltic states. These countries have played important roles in supporting Ukraine and replenishing military inventories.

Their combined ammunition imports increased more than tenfold after the invasion, substantially outpacing growth elsewhere in Europe.

India’s position has consequently strengthened, rising from the 28th-largest supplier to the second-largest supplier of shells, mortars, propellants and explosives to this group, behind South Korea. The ranking concerns these specific battlefield supplies rather than India’s overall defence exports.

Domestic Production Fuels Export Growth

Europe’s ammunition shortage stems from years of military assistance to Ukraine, limited manufacturing capacity and the need to rebuild national arsenals. Indian manufacturers have benefited by supplying conventional ammunition and explosives at competitive prices.

State-owned companies, particularly Munitions India, have emerged as major contributors. Established following the restructuring of the Ordnance Factory Board in 2021, the company has expanded overseas sales amid increasing competition in India’s defence manufacturing sector.

India’s broader defence exports also reached a record ₹38,424 crore in 2025–26, a 62.66% increase over the previous financial year. Exports reached more than 80 countries, with public-sector and private manufacturers both contributing significantly.

Ukraine Connection Raises Diplomatic Questions

The expanding trade carries geopolitical sensitivities. Bloomberg-reviewed customs records identified at least 78 shipments of Indian-origin 155 mm artillery shells, propellants and fuzes, worth $62.8 million, entering Ukraine in February 2024 through intermediaries.

India maintains that it has not directly supplied ammunition to Ukraine. Its export arrangements restrict unauthorised onward transfers, although a 2024 Reuters investigation reported that European customers had diverted Indian-made artillery ammunition to Ukraine despite Russian objections.

Balancing Commercial Gains with Strategic Caution

India’s expanding ammunition exports demonstrate its growing industrial capacity and ability to capitalise on international demand. However, the trade also tests New Delhi’s diplomatic balancing act with Russia, a longstanding defence partner.

Sustaining this momentum will require stronger end-user verification, transparent export controls and careful monitoring of re-exports. India’s challenge is to convert wartime demand into lasting defence-industrial strength without compromising its strategic autonomy or international credibility.

(With agency inputs)